The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated an 80% chance of an El Niño event developing between June and August 2026, with the likelihood of it persisting until at least November remaining high, around 90%.
Most forecasting models suggest that the emerging El Niño will be at least moderate in intensity and could even escalate to a strong event, increasing the risks of droughts, heavy rains, and heatwaves.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence rainfall patterns, droughts, storms, and temperature variations across Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia.
Experts caution that El Niño could amplify the consequences of climate change, raising the chances of extreme weather events worldwide. Francisco Aquino, head of the climate center at Brazil’s Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, stated, “When you have an El Niño on top of what climate change has already initiated, the risks are enormous.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted, “El Niño conditions will ignite the challenges of a warming world. The impacts will be more severe, will reach broader areas, and will cross borders with alarming speed.”
When will its effects be felt?
This climate phenomenon typically starts developing in spring and early summer, intensifying through autumn and peaking between November and February. Although some weather alterations may become evident in the upcoming months, the most severe effects are projected from late 2026 into early 2027.
The WMO emphasizes the need for preparedness, as El Niño could elevate the chances of drought, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat in many regions. “We must gear up for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will heighten risks of drought and heavy rainfall and increase the chances of heatwaves both on land and at sea,” remarked WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
How could it affect travel?
Southeast Asia: Countries like Indonesia may initially experience drier and sunnier conditions, which could attract holidaymakers. However, extended dry spells could lead to a higher risk of forest fires, affecting various locations in Indonesia and potentially producing smoke that impacts neighboring nations such as Malaysia and Singapore.
East Africa: Certain areas in East Africa might witness heavier rains later in the year. While this could create lush landscapes and enhance wildlife viewing opportunities, excessive rain might result in flooding, muddy roads, and transportation disruptions in remote safari regions.
Southern Africa: El Niño often correlates with hotter and drier weather in parts of southern Africa. While wildlife may congregate around dwindling water sources, ongoing drought could exert more pressure on communities, water supplies, and wildlife.
South America: Countries such as Peru and Ecuador, as well as parts of South America, may experience unusually intense rainfall and flooding. These conditions could disrupt transportation networks, outdoor tourism activities, and access to popular attractions.
Will all travel be affected?
Not necessarily. Some destinations might benefit from the weather patterns brought by El Niño. The Caribbean could see a less active hurricane season, while certain regions might enjoy extended dry spells and sunny weather.
Nonetheless, favourable weather can quickly turn disruptive when it shifts to extreme conditions. Heavy rainfall can trigger flooding and landslides, while prolonged dry spells can result in droughts, water shortages, and increased wildfire risks.
How El Niño could affect India
Historically, India has linked El Niño to weaker monsoon seasons and conditions resembling drought. A study evaluating over a century of weather data showed that while not every El Niño resulted in drought, most of the country’s severe droughts coincided with El Niño years.
A weaker monsoon could create challenges for India’s agriculture sector, where much farming still relies heavily on rain. Even irrigated farming depends significantly on groundwater, which is replenished by seasonal rainfall.
Decreased rainfall may affect crop yields and farmer incomes, putting upward pressure on food prices. This situation could heighten inflationary concerns, especially amidst ongoing global uncertainties impacting commodity markets.
Monsoon rains are also crucial for water security, as a large portion of India’s drinking water is linked to groundwater reserves. Lower rainfall could heighten stress on water resources in various regions. Travellers to India during the monsoon might experience reduced rainfall and elevated temperatures in certain areas.
